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Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell IonQ Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
IonQ prepares for Q1 2026 results with revenue seen at $48-$51M, signaling strong yearly growth.
IONQ stock fell 35.7% in Q1 despite expansion, partnerships and SkyWater acquisition plans.
IonQ's high valuation and rising losses may dampen sentiment despite backlog and demand strength.
IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, amid rapid strategic execution and expansion efforts. However, a complex macroeconomic backdrop and broader weakness in the tech sector have weighed on investor sentiment, putting pressure on quantum computing stocks in early 2026.
IonQ’s stock declined 35.7% during the January-March quarter of 2026, despite continued execution across key strategic initiatives, including the announced acquisition of SkyWater Technology to vertically integrate quantum chip manufacturing.
The company also advanced international partnerships in hybrid quantum-HPC systems, made progress in quantum networking and interconnect technologies and expanded its participation in government-backed programs while continuing to build out its full-stack quantum roadmap.
IonQ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 150.01%.
How are things shaping up for the first-quarter earnings release? Let’s take a closer look.
January-March Share Performance of IONQ
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Poised for IonQ?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter EPS has remained unchanged at a loss of 26 cents per share over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates 85.7% decline from the year-ago loss per share.
The consensus mark for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $49.7 million, indicating 555.9% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What to Expect From IonQ's Q1 Results
IonQ entered the first quarter of 2026 with strong momentum following a solid 2025. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenues were up 429% year over year, leading to full-year 2025 revenue growth of 202% over 2024. This performance exceeded expectations and reflected accelerating commercialization across its platform.
For the first quarter of 2026, IonQ guided revenues of $48-$51 million, implying sequential moderation but continued robust year-over-year growth, supported by backlog conversion and expanding customer adoption.
Operationally, demand was driven by IonQ’s fifth-generation 100-qubit Tempo system, with customer wins such as KISTI and expanded multi-year engagements like QuantumBasel. The company is also seeing increasing traction in quantum networking and security deployments, including national-scale projects in Europe. These are expected to have positively contributed to the company’s first-quarter top-line performance.
IonQ exited 2025 with $370 million in remaining performance obligations (RPO), providing strong revenue visibility. However, profitability may be dampened in the first quarter, with full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA at negative $186.8 million, reflecting continued heavy R&D investment.
The first-quarter performance is likely to have been driven by backlog execution, system deployments and continued commercial traction, while margins remain impacted by ongoing investments to expand its full-stack quantum platform.
A key strategic development in January 2026 was the announced acquisition of SkyWater Technology, aimed at vertically integrating manufacturing and strengthening supply chain resilience. While not yet reflected in first-quarter financials, it enhances IonQ’s long-term scaling capabilities.
Competitive Positioning
Rigetti Computing (RGTI - Free Report) : Heading into the first quarter results, Rigetti remains in a build-and-deliver phase, with results still tied to the timing of system shipments. The company continues advancing its chiplet-based architecture, with progress toward 100+ qubit systems and fidelity improvements as key milestones. The previously disclosed $5.7 million in Novera system orders, slated for first-half 2026 delivery, suggests gradual revenue contribution, with a more meaningful ramp likely later. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) : For the first quarter, D-Wave is expected to show steady conversion of bookings into revenues, reflecting the phased nature of multi-year agreements. Its Advantage2 system remains central, with ongoing customer expansion and hybrid quantum-classical deployments supporting demand. The previously announced Euro 10 million booking tied to Advantage2 capacity supports backlog growth. While near-term growth may remain measured, sustained bookings and adoption trends support longer-term visibility. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for IONQ Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for IonQ this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: IonQ has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The stock is currently trading at a lofty forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 59.3, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 6.49. This exceptionally high forward P/S ratio raises the risk of a sharp pullback if first-quarter results or the guidance for the rest of 2026 disappoint.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take
IonQ entered the first quarter with strong momentum following record 2025 revenues supporting near-term growth visibility. The first-quarter revenue guidance of $48-$51 million indicates continued year-over-year expansion, though sequential moderation is likely. However, elevated investment levels, with 2026 adjusted EBITDA projected at a loss of $310–$330 million, may keep profitability under pressure. Given ongoing macro volatility, a cautious stance ahead of earnings appears warranted, consistent with its Zacks Rank.
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Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell IonQ Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, amid rapid strategic execution and expansion efforts. However, a complex macroeconomic backdrop and broader weakness in the tech sector have weighed on investor sentiment, putting pressure on quantum computing stocks in early 2026.
IonQ’s stock declined 35.7% during the January-March quarter of 2026, despite continued execution across key strategic initiatives, including the announced acquisition of SkyWater Technology to vertically integrate quantum chip manufacturing.
The company also advanced international partnerships in hybrid quantum-HPC systems, made progress in quantum networking and interconnect technologies and expanded its participation in government-backed programs while continuing to build out its full-stack quantum roadmap.
IonQ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 150.01%.
How are things shaping up for the first-quarter earnings release? Let’s take a closer look.
January-March Share Performance of IONQ
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Poised for IonQ?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter EPS has remained unchanged at a loss of 26 cents per share over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates 85.7% decline from the year-ago loss per share.
The consensus mark for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $49.7 million, indicating 555.9% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What to Expect From IonQ's Q1 Results
IonQ entered the first quarter of 2026 with strong momentum following a solid 2025. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenues were up 429% year over year, leading to full-year 2025 revenue growth of 202% over 2024. This performance exceeded expectations and reflected accelerating commercialization across its platform.
For the first quarter of 2026, IonQ guided revenues of $48-$51 million, implying sequential moderation but continued robust year-over-year growth, supported by backlog conversion and expanding customer adoption.
Operationally, demand was driven by IonQ’s fifth-generation 100-qubit Tempo system, with customer wins such as KISTI and expanded multi-year engagements like QuantumBasel. The company is also seeing increasing traction in quantum networking and security deployments, including national-scale projects in Europe. These are expected to have positively contributed to the company’s first-quarter top-line performance.
IonQ exited 2025 with $370 million in remaining performance obligations (RPO), providing strong revenue visibility. However, profitability may be dampened in the first quarter, with full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA at negative $186.8 million, reflecting continued heavy R&D investment.
The first-quarter performance is likely to have been driven by backlog execution, system deployments and continued commercial traction, while margins remain impacted by ongoing investments to expand its full-stack quantum platform.
A key strategic development in January 2026 was the announced acquisition of SkyWater Technology, aimed at vertically integrating manufacturing and strengthening supply chain resilience. While not yet reflected in first-quarter financials, it enhances IonQ’s long-term scaling capabilities.
Competitive Positioning
Rigetti Computing (RGTI - Free Report) : Heading into the first quarter results, Rigetti remains in a build-and-deliver phase, with results still tied to the timing of system shipments. The company continues advancing its chiplet-based architecture, with progress toward 100+ qubit systems and fidelity improvements as key milestones. The previously disclosed $5.7 million in Novera system orders, slated for first-half 2026 delivery, suggests gradual revenue contribution, with a more meaningful ramp likely later. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) : For the first quarter, D-Wave is expected to show steady conversion of bookings into revenues, reflecting the phased nature of multi-year agreements. Its Advantage2 system remains central, with ongoing customer expansion and hybrid quantum-classical deployments supporting demand. The previously announced Euro 10 million booking tied to Advantage2 capacity supports backlog growth. While near-term growth may remain measured, sustained bookings and adoption trends support longer-term visibility. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for IONQ Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for IonQ this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: IonQ has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
IONQ's Valuation
The stock is currently trading at a lofty forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 59.3, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 6.49. This exceptionally high forward P/S ratio raises the risk of a sharp pullback if first-quarter results or the guidance for the rest of 2026 disappoint.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take
IonQ entered the first quarter with strong momentum following record 2025 revenues supporting near-term growth visibility. The first-quarter revenue guidance of $48-$51 million indicates continued year-over-year expansion, though sequential moderation is likely. However, elevated investment levels, with 2026 adjusted EBITDA projected at a loss of $310–$330 million, may keep profitability under pressure. Given ongoing macro volatility, a cautious stance ahead of earnings appears warranted, consistent with its Zacks Rank.